More than half of all transactions were off-plan sales, reflecting growing investor appetite for new retail developments, according to Cavendish Maxwell data. Off-plan retail transactions have surged 830% over five years.
By Pre-Launch Properties, Dubai | prelaunch.ae
DUBAI — Sales in Dubai’s retail real estate market climbed almost 50% year-on-year to AED 4.6 billion in 2025, with more than half of all transactions driven by off-plan retail property purchases, according to new data from leading real estate advisory group Cavendish Maxwell published this week.
The figures, drawn from Cavendish Maxwell’s latest insight into Dubai’s retail and warehousing sectors, show around 1,450 sales transactions were secured last year — a 7.6% increase on 2024 — while the off-plan segment accounted for more than half of them. Off-plan retail transactions have surged more than 830% over the past five years, rising from just 79 deals in 2021 to nearly 740 in 2025.
Dubai Retail Real Estate Market — Key Metrics (2025)
| Metric | Data Point |
| Total retail sales value (2025) | AED 4.6 billion (+~50% YoY) |
| Total retail transactions (2025) | ~1,450 deals (+7.6% YoY) |
| Off-plan share of transactions | More than 50% |
| Off-plan transaction growth (5 yrs) | 830% — from 79 (2021) to ~740 (2025) |
| Average retail rent growth (2025) | 7.1% YoY; up to 15% in key districts |
| New lease change (2025) | -15.7% (renewals up +6.5%) |
| Prime mall occupancy (Emaar / MAF) | 98% average across portfolios (Q3 2025) |
Source: Cavendish Maxwell Retail & Warehouse Market Insight, April 2026
Tenants Hold Ground as Prime Space Grows Scarce
On the leasing side, the number of retail lease renewals rose 6.5% in 2025, while new leases were down 15.7%, Cavendish Maxwell reported. The divergence signals that tenants are choosing to pay more to retain existing premises rather than risk losing established locations to competitors as prime availability tightens.
Rental costs across Dubai retail rose an average of 7.1% year-on-year, and by as much as 15% in some areas, driven by growth in community retail and steady performance across large-scale retail destinations. Both Emaar and Majid Al Futtaim maintained an average occupancy of 98% across their respective mall portfolios throughout Q3 2025, according to Cavendish Maxwell’s retail and warehouse market performance report, reflecting strong footfall and robust tenant demand at Dubai’s key retail locations.
“Dubai’s retail sector is marked by strong demand and limited prime space, which is driving tenants to secure established locations as experiential destinations and community-focused assets continue to mature,” said Siraj Ahmed, Director, Head of Strategy and Consulting at Cavendish Maxwell.
Retail Rally Sits Within a Record Broader Market
The retail sales surge takes place against a broader Dubai property market that entered 2026 at a pace. Dubai’s real estate sector recorded 47,996 transactions worth AED 176.7 billion in Q1 2026 — a 23.4% year-on-year increase in value and a 5.5% rise in volume, according to fam Properties. Off-plan dominated the quarter, accounting for 70% of transaction volume and 71% of total value.
“The market continues to show clear resilience even against a backdrop of regional uncertainty. The investor confidence we’re seeing now is built on strong fundamentals, transparency, and long-term growth drivers that remain firmly in place,” said Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fam Properties.
Cavendish Maxwell’s Q1 2026 residential report added that the off-plan segment grew 10.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, capturing 73% of all residential transactions. Total Q1 residential sales reached 44,100 transactions, up 4.2% compared to Q1 2025.
Dubai Off-Plan vs. Global Property Yields — Comparative Snapshot
| Market / Asset | Gross Rental Yield | 2025 Value Growth |
| Dubai retail (prime) | +7-15% rental growth YoY | Sales values +50% YoY |
| Dubai residential (apartments) | 6.5-8% gross (JVC, Arjan) | +12.1% residential avg |
| London / New York residential | 2-3% gross | Flat to marginal |
Sources: Cavendish Maxwell, Engelvoelkers Dubai, Driven Properties 2025-2026
What the Figures Mean for Off-Plan Retail Investors
The 830% five-year rise in off-plan retail transactions tracks closely with Dubai’s population expansion and the rollout of master-planned communities across the emirate. As residential populations grow in districts such as Dubai South, Dubailand, and the Dubai Creek Harbour corridor, demand for community retail follows organically.
Cavendish Maxwell’s forward outlook specifically identifies smaller community malls focused on daily needs and convenience as the sector’s next growth layer — the type of stock where pre-launch retail investors can position earliest, at sub-market entry pricing, before tenant demand crystallises at handover.
UAE GDP is projected to grow at 5.2% in 2026, with Dubai expanding by an estimated 4.5%, according to Emirates NBD. Dubai’s population has crossed 4 million residents, with the Dubai Urban Master Plan 2040 projecting growth to 5.8 million — a structural demand floor for every retail asset class across the emirate.
Foreign investors accounted for 58% of Dubai property transactions in Q2 2025, drawn by zero income tax, UAE Golden Visa eligibility from AED 2 million property purchases, and gross rental yields averaging 6-8% across Dubai’s residential market — figures that compare favourably against London or New York equivalents of 2-3%, according to Driven Properties and Engelvoelkers data.
Outlook: Community Retail Identified as Growth Corridor
Looking ahead, Cavendish Maxwell’s retail sector outlook highlights that persistent supply constraints across both the retail and warehouse sectors suggest rental growth momentum is likely to continue over the near-to-medium term. The consultancy notes that the market is set to develop through the growth of smaller community malls focused on daily needs and convenience, alongside ongoing investment in large flagship destinations.
The warehouse sector, closely tracked alongside retail, also reinforced the supply-shortage narrative, with rental rates rising by nearly 17% year-on-year as businesses prioritised lease renewals over relocation — an identical dynamic to that seen in retail.
For investors in off-plan commercial property in Dubai, the combination of supply constraints, rising rents, robust transaction volumes, and an expanding population base points to a market where early-stage retail positioning continues to carry a meaningful return premium over entry at completion.
How Pre-Launch Properties, Dubai, Is Helping Investors Access the Market
Pre-Launch Properties, Dubai, a RERA-registered off-plan investment platform operating through prelaunch.ae, provides investors with early access to retail and residential pre-launch opportunities across Dubai and Abu Dhabi before they reach the general market.
The platform — which works with over 70 developer partners — offers due diligence support on developer credibility and payment plan structures, personalised investment matching based on yield targets and hold strategy, and guidance on UAE Golden Visa eligibility for qualifying purchases.
“In a market where the best retail units in the right community are being absorbed before launch, early access and sound due diligence are not optional — they are the entire investment edge,” the platform noted in recent market commentary on Dubai’s 2026 off-plan investor landscape. Investors can also review Pre-Launch Properties, Dubai’s detailed guide to maximising returns with UAE pre-launch properties and the platform’s analysis of Dubai’s off-plan commercial property market.
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